The world has seen the worst ever economic crisis after the great depression of 1929. The economic crisis that has affected the world today was born in United States. It was facilitated by countries like Great Britain and finally resulted in engulfing the whole world.
The economic crisis we are seeing today is a revolution that would bring a sea of changes in the world order. Today the United States’ dominance is being questioned. The sustainability of developed countries is being questioned. The very definition of a developed country is being questioned. In the past 10 months, the world has seen a totally different dimension of the developed world. The developed countries that once boasted of their economic strength are now struggling to show their economic growth in positive numbers.
Though the so called developed countries have lost their sheen, all is not lost in this economic crisis. We are still seeing positive growths. The developing countries and the third world countries in this crisis are showing resilience. Though these countries have been badly hit by the economic crisis but they always had their contingency plans in place. The reserved policies in these countries that once were thought to be the obstacles of economic growth have helped them survive the economic crisis. The point is actually valid in case of China and India. It has been the closed door policies of China and conservative policies of India that has helped to stay afloat in this economic crisis.
The world today is seeing drastic changes in the world order. The G7 meetings are getting converted to the G20 meetings. The world has come to realize that it is not without the countries like Brazil, China, Russia, and India that the world can come out of this economic crisis. Though the developed countries are doing their bit to sustain the world economy, it is up to these developing countries to show the path of growth and process to the world. The world is definitely seeing a change in the economic activities of the world. The Asian dragons and tigers are taking over the American eagle and European Lions.
And it’s not just a thought. There are signs which indicate that these emerging economies will soon be the focus of the major economic activities in the world. Even in the times of economic crisis, countries like China, India, and Brazil are showing positive growth results. And the growth is not just a flash in the pan. It is a consistent growth over a period of time. The countries have started getting surpluses in their trade. The standard of living in all these countries is slowing rising. The government is spending a lot on infrastructure development to provide their countries not only with good roads and schools but also with employment. The manufacturing sector in China is seeing growth it has not seen in years. The IT and ITES is booming in Brazil and India. Russia is moving ahead with its technological developments in Space science. The countries are making the world markets take notice of what they are manufacturing and producing. They are competing with the developed countries in the world market and giving the world better products, better technology and better services. Even the developed countries are importing goods from these countries. China, the world’s manufacturing factory, is the largest exporter to United States. Other South-East Asian economies like Vietnam and Indonesia have also started competing with China and are emerging as new destinations for the world trade. The growth of countries not only in South-East Asia but also in Africa and the Gulf has moved to the next level. South Africa is one of the leading destinations for trade of minerals like platinum, gold and diamonds. The gulf countries like U.A.E. have started looking for alternative options for trade and economic growth. They are trying to reduce their dependency on oil trade and have started providing services like logistics and cargo handling. The Dubai Logistics city is one such example. Canada is also breaking its shackles defying the American dominance on the American continent. Canada with its slow and steady growth is also showing signs of prosperity. With small pockets of third world countries challenging the developed world the macro environment is becoming very dynamic. The changes which countries like China, India, Brazil, Russia, Vietnam, and South Africa are undergoing and the pace with which these changes are being implemented in these countries, very soon the world economic order will have a totally new face.
This entire shift in the economic activities is actually a result of a lot other changes that are taking place within these countries as well around the world. The demographics of these countries are changing rapidly. The developed countries are faced with a challenge of sustaining their culture and religion. The developed countries are facing the problem of aging population. The aging population has actually increased the burden on the working class of people. And the volume of working class of people in the age group is 22-58, which contribute most to the economy, is rapidly shrinking. On the other hand, China and India, with the highest populations in the world are today, have a strong and growing working class. Even though the aging population in these countries is growing, the working class is growing faster and contributing to the economy in a very large way. Thus, the demographic pyramid that has to be bottom up has turned upside down for developed economies with top bulging and the stem shrinking. For developing economies the pyramid is still straight and vertical with a much broader base.
Another change that is very much evident and is affecting the economies of the world is the changing consumer behaviour and shift in the consumer spending. Earlier, the developed countries used to be the consumers of the world. US with its very small population and wasteful ways of spending, is still the largest exporter in the world. But with rising income and standards of living in the developing countries, these countries also have started spending. And with huge populations, when these countries start spending, the demand for all goods goes up in the world market. This increased demand is not only for essential commodities but also for luxurious goods as people in these countries can now afford to spend on luxurious goods. People not only need McDonalds and Pizza Huts but also Ferraris and BMWs. With a growing demand for all kinds of goods and with rising population, the world market would be more than willing to cater to these demands.
The technology, which has been the cornerstone for globalization, is another factor which will lead to the new economic world order. Russia is rapidly advancing in space technology and military weapons. China has become the manufacturing hub of the world, with latest state of the art technology and machinery. India is moving ahead with its IT and ITES and has yet to find a true global competitor in this field. Also all these countries are pursuing their own researches in the field of space and nuclear technology. India recently announced the development of its nuclear submarine. China has big plans to enter into space in the near future. All these signs indicate the technological advances and researches are slowly and steadily moving towards the developing countries. Even today, India caters mainly to US and UK clients in its IT and ITES sector. They provide all back end services of all the banks, manufacturing industries and other service sectors like telecom. But the day is not far when demand for these services will rise in India and other developing countries. The technologies like Internet, telecommunications, biotechnology and nanotechnology have brought these developing countries a long way. These technologies have shrunk the world in the way it was never before. And now these technologies are laying the stepping stones for these growing economies.
Though the growing economies look promising today, they are facing a lot of challenges. All the developing economies are also facing common problems which obstruct the economic growth of these countries. Population for these countries is a necessary evil. The population in these countries is so large that to feed the mouths of everyone in the country is a daunting task for these governments. The governments also have to make sure that all the prosperity and economic growth has to be evenly distributed among the people in the country. The increasing disparity between the levels of income of the people is also a problem that is being faced by these countries today. With power in the hands of a few rich, the sustainability of the economic growth is a big question mark. Today one cannot deny the fact that China is growing at a very fast pace, but the government in China is still an autocratic government with power in the hands of a few. The country is not governed by the people of the country. India, though a democratic country, is facing problems like red tape and corrupt bureaucracy which hinders the growth of the country. All these countries are trying to make a global impact in this time of crisis. After this economic crisis there is no doubt that the center of economic activities has to shift to the developing countries and to China and India. With US and UK still trying to revive their economies, it is a long shot that US and UK will regain their positions back. The onus therefore is on the developing countries to bring the global economy back on track. The interesting part would be to see who takes the charge in this new economic world order. Will it be China, India, Russia, Brazil or some other third world country.
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